The Hidden Truth About Our Collapsing Birth Rates - Mads Larsen

The discussion centers on the declining fertility rates in Norway and globally, with evolutionary psychologist Mads Larsen highlighting the societal and psychological factors contributing to this trend. He and Leif Kennair explore the concept of "involuntary single women" and how modern dating dynamics and individual partner choice impact fertility. Larsen argues that societal changes, such as women's independence and altered mating preferences, have led to fewer partnerships and births. He emphasizes the need for cultural shifts and innovative solutions to address this existential challenge, despite societal reluctance to engage with the issue.

• The discussion begins with the speaker's efforts to address the fertility crisis in Norway, emphasizing societal reluctance to engage with the issue.
• An article co-authored by the speaker introduced the concept of involuntary single women, linking it to declining fertility rates, which sparked controversy and accusations of misogyny.
• Low fertility rates are partly attributed to difficulties in finding suitable partners, shortening women's reproductive windows and impacting desired family sizes.

"One of the main drivers of low fertility is that people is having too hard of a time to find Partners so women either do not find a partner with whom they can have children or they find one too late so that the reproductive window is shortened."

• This quote highlights the connection between partner availability and declining fertility, emphasizing societal structures impacting women's reproductive choices.

• The concept of involuntary single women was misinterpreted as misogynistic, with critics suggesting it placed blame on women for low fertility rates.
• The speaker clarifies that the intention was not to assign blame but to highlight environmental factors affecting women's ability to find partners.

"Many felt that if you bring the attention to how the dating Market works for women you are somehow blaming women for low fertility."

• The quote underscores the misinterpretation of the speaker's argument, stressing the need to focus on environmental factors rather than individual blame.

• Human societies are unique in allowing individual partner choice, contrasting with historical arranged marriages.
• The speaker explains the evolutionary development of promiscuous and pair-bonding attraction systems, and how these systems influence current mating markets.

"We have a mixed system; we both have a promiscuous attraction system and a pair-bonding attraction system."

• This quote illustrates the complexity of human attraction systems, explaining the challenges in reconciling these systems in modern mating markets.

• The transition to individual partner choice in the 1960s, facilitated by birth control and economic prosperity, led to increased stratification among men in mating opportunities.
• Men at the top of the social hierarchy gain more mating opportunities, while those at the bottom are excluded, impacting overall fertility rates.

"We've seen an increasing stratification among men where some men at the top get an increasing amount of mating opportunities."

• The quote highlights the social stratification resulting from modern mating systems, affecting both relationship dynamics and fertility rates.

• Norway's fertility rate of 1.4 is portrayed as a significant issue, with long-term consequences for generational size and societal sustainability.
• The speaker emphasizes the existential threat posed by declining fertility, likening it to other global challenges such as climate change.

"With a fertility rate of 1.4, you lose one-third of your generational size per generation."

• This quote underscores the severe demographic implications of low fertility rates, stressing the urgency of addressing the issue.

• A declining population leads to societal challenges such as school closures and labor shortages, affecting economic stability and cultural psychology.
• The speaker argues that addressing climate change and other global issues will be more difficult with a shrinking population.

"We're going to be fighting over a shrinking pie, and our species tends to get quite unpleasant in those situations."

• The quote highlights the potential for increased societal conflict and economic challenges in the face of declining populations.

• The speaker calls for increased public awareness and experimentation with solutions to motivate reproduction, criticizing the current lack of urgency in addressing the fertility crisis.
• Comparisons are made to the attention given to climate change, suggesting similar efforts are needed for fertility issues.

"We're not sounding the alarm and refusing to talk about it; it makes you feel like you're in that movie 'Don't Look Up'."

• This quote reflects the speaker's frustration with the lack of public discourse on declining fertility, urging for more proactive measures.

• Researchers and government officials are hesitant to portray declining fertility negatively, fearing political repercussions and career impacts.
• Some countries, like South Korea and Finland, are beginning to take the issue seriously and explore potential solutions.

"We just established a national birth rate committee that will study this and see what kind of solutions they may suggest."

• The quote indicates a growing recognition of the fertility crisis in some regions, highlighting efforts to address the issue through policy and research.

• Economic arguments against increasing birth rates are critiqued, with the speaker emphasizing the long-term benefits of addressing fertility issues.
• Misplaced fears among researchers and policymakers hinder progress, with a need for open discussion and realistic portrayals of the crisis.

"You can't portray this so negatively because then you will empower the political forces."

• This quote captures the tension between acknowledging the severity of the fertility crisis and the political hesitations that prevent open discourse.

• Concerns about low fertility rates often lead to misconceptions and fears about political and social consequences.
• Some people fear discussions on fertility might lead to regressive policies or accusations of racism.

"There's this belief that if we talk about low fertility... we will be taken back to the Dark Ages... the risk of that is infantism small."

• The speaker argues that fears of regressive policies due to fertility discussions are exaggerated.

"Some of them are afraid that they will be perceived as racist... because there are so many people in Africa."

• Concerns about being labeled racist when discussing Western fertility rates are mentioned.

• The debate on fertility is often muddled with personal attacks and misunderstandings.
• Accusations against those discussing fertility issues include misogyny and fascism.

"Over the last months, I've been called a misogynist, a fascist... people assume I want the government to force women to have sex with and have children with incels."

• The speaker highlights personal attacks experienced due to discussing fertility issues.

"These accusations... are the confusing beginning phase of a really important debate."

• The speaker suggests that initial misunderstandings are part of starting a significant debate.

• The speaker sees themselves as a pioneer in the fertility debate, enduring criticism to initiate discussion.
• The speaker's research has elevated the fertility debate to a national level in Norway.

"I presented my research for the Norwegian infertility Institute... amazed at how I... elevated this debate about low fertility to the national level."

• The speaker's efforts have brought national attention to the fertility issue in Norway.

"I just want this debate to get started and now it has started... I'm thankful."

• Despite personal attacks, the speaker is grateful that the debate on fertility has begun.

• Birth rates are declining globally, with few exceptions like Israel.
• Various country-specific reasons are given for declining birth rates, but the issue is universal.

"Every 15 years the birth rate decreases by one child per mother in African countries too."

• The speaker notes the global nature of declining birth rates.

"This is a global situation... everywhere except for Israel basically."

• The speaker emphasizes that declining birth rates are a worldwide issue.

• Reproduction involves several bottlenecks: finding a partner, deciding to have children, and being able to have children.
• The speaker argues that the ability to have children is not the main issue; rather, it's the earlier stages.

"First you have to be able to find a partner... then you have to decide to have children... then you have to be able to make one."

• The speaker outlines the stages involved in reproduction and identifies finding a partner as a significant challenge.

"Sperm quality has decreased 40% among men... but it's still more than good enough for making children."

• The speaker suggests that biological ability is not the primary issue in declining birth rates.

• Female empowerment and the ability to choose partners have influenced reproduction dynamics.
• In societies with high female equality, birth rates are lower.

"Where birth rates are still reproducing and growing... female equality is not a very high value."

• The speaker notes that societies with lower female equality tend to have higher birth rates.

"Women have been empowered to have their own jobs... to choose their own partners for the first time in human history."

• The speaker highlights how female empowerment has changed partner selection dynamics.

• Modern dating dynamics, influenced by technology and social changes, affect partner selection.
• Women have more options in short-term mating markets, leading to higher standards for long-term partners.

"Women will have the power on the short-term mating market... it's very natural that you increase your standards."

• The speaker explains how the abundance of options in short-term dating markets affects women's standards.

"If women understood better... it's a big difference between a short and a long-term mating market."

• The speaker suggests that understanding the difference between short and long-term mating markets could influence partner selection.

• The current mating system is new and has not been historically successful; societal adjustments are needed.
• The speaker is optimistic about finding solutions to the fertility crisis.

"Our society will disappear if we don't do anything about this... we need to talk about it."

• The speaker stresses the existential threat posed by declining birth rates and the need for societal discussion.

"The 21st Century's reproductive crisis... it's not the biggest one... I think we can make changes."

• The speaker expresses optimism about solving the current fertility challenges through societal changes.

• The debate includes discussions on whether women's standards are too high or if men's standards have decreased.
• The speaker argues against blaming groups for societal issues.

"How do you know that it's women's standards being too high and not men the standard of men decreasing?"

• The question raises the issue of gender standards and societal expectations in the fertility debate.

"Going out and saying to men you have to get better... it's inhumane and it doesn't work."

• The speaker argues against the notion of telling groups to improve as a solution to societal problems.

• Traditional motivations for reproduction are no longer compelling in contemporary society due to improved living conditions.
• The current societal structure, which supports women's independence, presents challenges to traditional mating psychology.
• There is a tension between supporting women's rights and addressing declining birth rates.

"The argument is women should get into relationships with guys who either aren't good enough or that don't fundamentally like that bringing back a patriarchal or enforced monogamy style socially enforced monogamy not handmade stale uh socially enforced monogamy style Society is better."

• This quote highlights the criticism of reverting to outdated societal norms to address modern reproductive challenges.

• Women's financial and socioeconomic independence is viewed positively but also misaligns with traditional mating psychology.
• Encouraging women to lower standards or men to improve individually is not a feasible solution due to societal complexities.

"It's very difficult to say hey girls lower your standards like what does that mean in the same way as telling guys that you need to do better like what does that mean especially at a group level."

• The complexity of societal expectations makes it challenging to offer simple solutions to improve birth rates.

• Societies need to explore new norms and values to adapt to changing cultural and demographic landscapes.
• Different communities should experiment with solutions based on their cultural legacies.

"We need to start experimenting we need to do something because we're all disappearing in this part of the world."

• Urgency in experimenting with societal norms is emphasized to address demographic challenges.

• Women's increasing socioeconomic success has created challenges in finding suitable partners.
• Men are falling behind in education and earnings, affecting their attractiveness as partners.

"Why aren't men flourishing why aren't they going to University why is it two women for every one man doing a four-year us college degree."

• The disparity in educational attainment between men and women is a significant factor in modern relationship dynamics.

• There is a lack of societal initiatives to uplift underperforming men compared to past efforts for women.
• Raising men's standards is seen as crucial for improving societal dynamics and relationships.

"When women had a problem we said what can we do to fix Society but now that men have a problem we say what is it that men are doing where they can't fix themselves."

• The difference in societal responses to male and female challenges is highlighted, indicating a need for balanced support.

• The term "incel" is stigmatized, marginalizing men who struggle with forming relationships.
• Society's negative perception prevents open discussions about the challenges faced by these men.

"We've created the culture where these men that are the most marginalized and you could say oppressed aren't even allowed to speak up about how terrible their lives have become."

• The societal stigma surrounding involuntary celibacy hinders meaningful discourse and support for affected individuals.

• Modern ideologies of love focus on individualistic self-realization, affecting long-term pair bonding and fertility.
• Historical ideologies, such as romantic love, promoted lifelong pair bonds and higher fertility rates.

"We now live in a world with the mating ideology that's called confluent love... supposed to come together and as long as that's beneficial, we're supposed to stay together when it's not move on."

• The shift towards individualistic love ideologies contributes to declining fertility rates and challenges in sustaining long-term relationships.

• Evolutionary adaptations for reproduction are mismatched with modern societal conditions, particularly due to the separation of sex from reproduction via contraceptives.
• Ideological shifts have made having children more voluntary, with some groups viewing childlessness as heroic or environmentally responsible.
• Despite favorable social conditions for child-rearing in places like Norway, birth rates remain low, indicating that financial incentives alone are insufficient to encourage reproduction.

"Evolution works in a way that it implants proxy for it. You're sexually attracted to someone, you do these things, and then in some, it leads to sufficient reproduction, but now that we detached copulation from reproduction through effective contraceptives, those adaptations that we evolved for the previous mating regimes don't work as well."

• This quote highlights the evolutionary proxy of sexual attraction for reproduction and how modern contraceptives disrupt this natural process.

"We have all these factors that play in there, and what politicians and fertility researchers are drawn to are those more mundane environmental factors."

• The focus on environmental and financial factors by policymakers is insufficient to address the deeper cultural and ideological shifts affecting birth rates.

• Cultural and ideological pressures, such as cost of living and self-actualization, significantly impact decisions about having children.
• Urbanization and individualization are acknowledged factors in declining fertility, but their exact influence remains uncertain.
• There is a need for research to understand the true motivators behind reproductive decisions beyond self-reported reasons.

"Some of the highest rated reasons for why people haven't had kids is not ready yet, still working on myself, don't have the money, and insufficiently financially secure."

• Self-reported reasons for not having children often center around personal readiness and financial security, reflecting broader cultural values.

"Experts actually do not know what the precise factors are that have created the situation. They know some, they know that urbanization is a factor, individualization, but how they play in, how much they affect things, it's still a puzzle."

• There is a lack of comprehensive understanding of the precise factors leading to declining birth rates, indicating a need for further research.

• The decline in birth rates is seen as a self-reinforcing cycle, with fewer children leading to reduced social incentives for reproduction.
• Societal norms and expectations around family size are shifting downward with each generation, exacerbating the decline.
• There is skepticism among experts about the potential for reversing this trend without significant cultural change.

"Norwegian women want to have 2.4 children, but they have 1.4 now that it's fell to 1.4. The next generation will probably want to have quite a bit fewer than 2.4."

• This quote illustrates the gap between desired and actual fertility rates, suggesting a downward trend in reproductive aspirations.

"The leading international experts are pretty uniform. They don't all agree, but they're pretty uniform. This isn't turning around."

• Experts generally agree that without intervention, the declining fertility trend is unlikely to reverse on its own.

• Resistance from various societal groups, including environmentalists, complicates efforts to address declining fertility.
• Discussions around fertility often encounter ideological opposition, making it difficult to reach consensus on solutions.
• There is a need for national movements and research to explore potential solutions to the fertility crisis.

"I was working at a center of environmentalists, and they need to have their profile, and I respect that, and when they found out that I was going to research declining populations from a negative perspective, they didn't want to have anything to do with it."

• Resistance from environmental groups reflects the ideological challenges in addressing fertility decline.

"Hopefully, this is the first phase of the debate, and then if we're able to get past it, we can agree this is an existential challenge."

• The speaker expresses hope for moving beyond ideological debates to focus on addressing the existential challenge of declining fertility.

• Discussing unpopular topics like declining fertility can lead to increased aggression in communication due to frustration.
• There is a need for rational and realistic discourse to effectively communicate the importance of addressing fertility issues.
• Activists must balance emotional expression with rational argumentation to maintain credibility and influence.

"As Richard said, the problem you have when you do that is that you become less and less acceptable to be understood, especially in an arena that's increasingly inflammatory because you are more inflammatory."

• Increasing aggression in communication can undermine the effectiveness of advocacy efforts.

"I don't enjoy being the object of hatred and derision and having well, if at least they attacked something that was actually my position, but so far it's been exclusively strawman."

• The speaker describes the personal challenges faced when advocating for controversial topics, emphasizing the importance of accurate representation.

• Demographic decline poses a unique existential risk that lacks the immediate visibility of other crises like pandemics or environmental disasters.
• The gradual nature of demographic collapse requires novel solutions and cultural shifts to address effectively.
• There is an urgent need for society to recognize and address the long-term implications of declining birth rates.

"Demographic collapse is this sort of really unique class of we've never faced this problem before."

• The unprecedented nature of demographic decline demands new approaches and understanding.

"We have to think anew, we have to analyze and understand something that is really complex, and then we have to come up with completely novel solutions probably, and that is a hell of a challenge."

• Addressing demographic decline requires innovative thinking and solutions due to its complexity and novelty.