985: NFL Draft - A Sneaky Wide Receiver Class

J.J. Zachary hosts the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, bringing on Matt Harmon to discuss the 2025 wide receiver class. Harmon, known for his Reception Perception work, evaluates wide receivers by charting their performances in an eight-game sample. In this episode, they delve into the skills and potential of top prospects like Travis Hunter, Ted McMillan, Matthew Golden, and Luther Burden. Harmon praises Hunter's elite separation and catching ability, while McMillan is compared to Cortland Sutton. Golden's analytics raise concerns, but his potential remains intriguing. Burden's unique usage at Missouri suggests a high ceiling. The discussion highlights the importance of draft capital and landing spots for these players' NFL success.

• Reception Perception is a methodology developed by Matt Harmon for evaluating wide receivers by charting an eight-game sample of film to provide a comprehensive picture of a wide receiver's abilities.
• The process involves logging every snap and route run, focusing on metrics like success rate by routes and how often they get open against different coverages.
• The aim is to understand a player's role and potential, especially important before knowing their NFL destination.

"For NFL players, for college prospects, I go in and I chart an eight-game sample on film and basically just try to give you a full picture of who that wide receiver is as a player."

• Reception Perception provides a detailed analysis of a wide receiver's role and effectiveness, crucial for understanding their potential impact in the NFL.

• The 2025 wide receiver class is rated around a 6.5 to 7 out of 10, lacking the high-end talent of the previous year but possessing depth in day two prospects.
• Last year's class had several tier-one prospects, while this year's class is more about solid NFL players who can be good number twos or threes.

"I'd say it's probably like six and a half, seven. Yeah. Because we certainly don't have the players at the top that we had in last year's class."

• The class lacks top-tier talent but offers a strong group of players who can contribute effectively at the NFL level.

• Travis Hunter is considered one of the most unique and talented wide receiver prospects ever evaluated, excelling as both a wide receiver and a defensive back.
• Despite not being an elite route runner yet, Hunter is an elite separator and has rare catching ability, making him a top prospect.

"This is one of my favorite quote wide receivers I've ever evaluated. I think he is just an awesome, awesome receiver prospect."

• Hunter's dual-role ability and natural talent make him a standout prospect, even if his technical skills as a wide receiver are still developing.

• Travis Hunter's analytical marks are not strong, but this is explained by his unique role, lack of preparation in the wide receiver room, and the offensive scheme at Colorado.
• His adjusted metrics, when considering scheme and competition, are reportedly strong, supporting his potential as a top draft pick.

"I've sort of explained this away in a few ways where number one, he's obviously one of the most unique prospects, if not the most unique prospect we've ever seen."

• Hunter's analytical profile requires context, considering his unique usage and preparation, which affects traditional metrics like breakout score and yards per route run.

• Metrics like yards per route run are useful but not fully player-isolating, and there is nuance in what constitutes a "route" in different offensive schemes.
• Both analytical models and film-based evaluations like Reception Perception have limitations and should be used to complement each other.

"I'm never going to sell the zap model or analytics in a way that is going to solve everything for you."

• Evaluating prospects involves understanding the limitations of different methodologies and using them to identify red flags, green flags, and range of outcomes.

• Ted McMillan is considered the consensus wide receiver one outside of Travis Hunter, with strong comparisons to Cortland Sutton and Michael Pittman.
• McMillan is seen as a "smoother X receiver," excelling in press coverage and separation, but not quite at the tier of elite prospects like Drake London.
• He is viewed as a potential high-end number two receiver, with the ability to function as a number one in certain teams.

"He's big, he's long, he beats press coverage, he separates pretty well. But he's not quite like in the Drake London tier either, which I do think London was a tier one prospect."

• McMillan's profile is compared to players like Michael Thomas and Drake London, indicating his capacity to be a versatile receiver across formations.

"I think McMillan comps really well to a guy like Cortland Sutton, so he's not great on these, like, quicker routes."

• Concerns exist about McMillan's ability to be a standalone star receiver without complementary pieces around him, as he might not be quarterback or scheme-proof.

"Is he going to be able to be quarterback slash scheme proof and just be thrown in?"

• Matthew Golden is a polarizing figure in the draft, with his stock rising significantly due to his playoff performance and combine results.
• Golden's production profile is seen as lacking, with concerns about his ability to perform as a wide receiver one due to his struggles against press coverage and quick routes.

"Golden I think is a nice player. You know, I, I kind of come down somewhere in the middle on him as a prospect."

• His analytical profile raises red flags, particularly his breakout score and yards per team pass attempt, which are significantly below average for successful first-round receivers.

"Here's a list of the first round wide receivers with breakout scores below 80. Okay, he's at 51.4 I think it is."

• Despite concerns, Golden's potential draft capital could place him in the top five wide receivers, making him a valuable asset in fantasy football.

"How does Matthew golden, if he gets top 16, top 20 draft capital, how is he not in your top five wide receivers at the end of the day?"

• Luther Burden's college usage at Missouri was similar to Wandell Robinson, focusing heavily on slot work and screens.
• Despite this, Burden is not seen as just a gadget player, with strong athleticism and yards after catch (Yak) capabilities.

"Well, he's definitely not just a gadget guy."

• There is potential for Burden to develop beyond his college role, with reception perception indicating more versatility in his game.

"Is there potential beyond that? I think the answer in terms of what reception perception tells us is there, is there more beyond? Luther Burden's usage is definitively yes."

• Burden's profile is debated, with some experts ranking him as the top wide receiver in the class, while others see limitations in his current playing style.

"I had Waldman on. Waldman has him at wide receiver one in this class."

These notes encapsulate the key discussions and evaluations of wide receiver prospects Ted McMillan, Matthew Golden, and Luther Burden, providing a comprehensive understanding of their profiles and potential in the NFL.

• Luther Burden is a wide receiver with high potential due to his physical attributes and ability to break tackles, but his performance is inconsistent.
• He excels in yards after catch, showing a 71.2% success rate against man coverage, yet struggles against zone coverage.
• Concerns about his work ethic and character could affect his potential to reach his ceiling in the NFL.

"Burden went down on first contact on just 37.5% of the in-space attempts I charted. Like, he's bigger than you think, he's faster than you think."

• This quote highlights Burden's physical capabilities and potential as a receiver who can break tackles and gain extra yards.

"It's kind of up to Luther Burden because he's a guy that we've heard about, like, work ethic concerns and character concerns."

• The speaker expresses concern that Burden's future success heavily depends on his personal commitment and character development.

• Burden is compared to other players like Khalil Shakir, Rasheed Rice, and Chris Godwin, suggesting he has a high ceiling but also a wide range of potential outcomes.
• His usage and production are compared to players like Kadarius Toney and Paris Campbell, but his sophomore season stands out as particularly impressive.

"Luther Burden is like 4 inches taller and 25 pounds heavier than Wando Robinson, which you could say it doesn't. That matters."

• The speaker emphasizes Burden's physical advantages over similar players, potentially giving him an edge in the NFL.

"His sophomore season, from strictly a production standpoint, is the most impressive single season, age-adjusted of any wide receiver in this class."

• This quote underscores Burden's standout performance during his sophomore year, suggesting significant potential if he can replicate that success.

• Burden's breakout score is high, indicating potential success if he receives first or second-round draft capital.
• Historical data suggests that players with similar profiles have generally exceeded expectations in their NFL careers.

"Of those 15, only two of them have failed to exceed their draft capital expectation in terms of best season PPR points per game."

• The speaker uses historical data to argue that players like Burden often outperform their draft expectations.

"If he gets round one, but if he gets round two, maybe you start to think, okay, maybe there's a little bit more to this."

• The speaker suggests that Burden's draft position will heavily influence perceptions of his potential and usage in the NFL.

• Burden is compared to Brandon Aiyuk, who also had a wide range of outcomes but developed into a top route runner and separator in the NFL.
• The potential for Burden to follow a similar career path is discussed, with the hope that he will respond well to coaching and improve his game.

"Brandon Ayuk was a guy that was kind of viewed as a bit of a gadget player coming into the league. He was not a refined route runner at all."

• The speaker draws parallels between Burden and Aiyuk, suggesting that Burden could develop into a top NFL player with the right coaching.

"Maybe him going in the second round is like the best possible thing for him."

• The speaker speculates that being drafted in the second round could serve as a motivational wake-up call for Burden.

• Emeka Egbuka is considered a potentially safer prospect than even Travis Hunter due to his proven skills as a wide receiver.
• Egbuka is seen as a ready-made power slot receiver with the ability to play flanker and excel in the right offensive system.

"I think the proof of concept is, is so good and look like safe when it comes to prospecting is like a, it's just, it's a damned endeavor to call somebody safe."

• The speaker acknowledges the difficulty in labeling a prospect as "safe" but believes Egbuka has a strong foundation for NFL success.

"I think he could have that type of production impact."

• The speaker believes Egbuka has the potential to be highly productive in the right situation, similar to players like Amon-Ra St. Brown.

• Jaden Higgins is a prospect with separation issues but potential as a power slot receiver.
• His reception perception chart shows weaknesses against man and press coverage, but he excels against zone coverage.

"Jaden Higgins is like close to the average in terms of like dig routes, post routes, some of those like in Breakers."

• The speaker notes that while Higgins has separation issues, he shows competence in certain route types.

"All of them have gone on to be power slot receivers."

• The speaker suggests that Higgins, like other players with similar profiles, may find success as a power slot receiver in the NFL.

• The class lacks many prototypical X receivers, which may lead to increased interest in players like Jaden Higgins.
• The scarcity of such players in recent classes is noted, impacting how prospects are evaluated and valued.

"To be honest, I think there haven't been in the last few classes in terms of like guys who aren't elite pros."

• The speaker observes a trend of fewer prototypical X receivers entering the NFL in recent years, affecting team strategies and draft evaluations.

• The NFL is shifting away from the traditional big perimeter X receivers towards more efficient, separation-based receivers.
• Players like Quentin Johnson, who don't fit the X receiver profile, are becoming less common.
• The league prefers efficient passing offenses that prioritize target separation over contested catches.

"Right now I think there's more players that are kind of leaning into that archetype than there is these big perimeter X receivers."

• The quote highlights the trend towards smaller, more versatile receivers who excel in separation and efficiency.

• Jalen Noel ranks highly among prospects due to his ability to beat man coverage and win contested catches.
• He is compared favorably to Josh Downs and is seen as versatile enough to play both inside and outside.
• Noel's versatility and talent make him a valuable asset in the right offensive system.

"I love Jalen Noel. Yeah, he is ranked really highly for me. I have in the same tier of prospects as Matthew Golden, as Luther Burden."

• This quote underscores Noel's high ranking and potential impact in the NFL, similar to other top-tier prospects.

• Trey Harris exhibits a volatile profile typical of a straight-line X receiver, with potential for significant success.
• His route running against man and press coverage shows promise, but his limited route tree is a concern.
• Harris's profile is compared to Terrace Marshall, indicating potential risks and rewards.

"Trey Harris has one of the most volatile profiles, you know, and that's kind of where I ended up ranking him."

• The quote emphasizes the unpredictability of Harris's success due to his profile and playing style.

• Jack Besh is an excellent route runner with potential as a fantasy asset, but his profile has red flags.
• His limited route success on deep routes and one-position alignment are concerns.
• Besh's history as a slot receiver and strong route running offer hope for success in the right system.

"85th percentile success rate versus man 80.8 against zone 91st percentile success rate versus press like his route running off the line of scrim is really good."

• This quote highlights Besh's impressive route running skills and potential for success despite his limitations.

• Jalen Royals has a limited route tree and struggles against press coverage, similar to Rashi Rice.
• Royals shows potential with the ball in his hands, indicating a possible role change in the NFL.
• His development as a route runner is crucial for future success.

"He's just like a vertical straight line X receiver and now he's like this big slot gadget screen guy in Kansas City."

• The quote illustrates the transformation of players like Royals and Rice from traditional roles to more versatile positions in the NFL.

• Kyle Williams is gaining attention as a potential day two pick due to his solid route running and reliability.
• His ability to make plays after the catch and versatility across formations are key strengths.
• Williams fits the mold of a slot flanker in the NFL, offering development potential.

"He was just relentless at separating on like base routes, curls, digs, slants."

• This quote highlights Williams's proficiency in route running and separation, contributing to his rising draft stock.

• Xavier Restrepo could emerge as a reliable NFL slot receiver despite lacking explosiveness.
• Arkansas receivers Andrew Armstrong and Tesla show potential, with Tesla displaying intriguing athleticism and separation ability.
• These prospects may surprise in the right system or with further development.

"I actually think Tesla, the other Arkansas receiver who I know has like no production."

• The quote suggests that despite limited production, Tesla's athletic profile and separation skills could lead to unexpected success.