2025 Predictions on AI, Podcasting, and the IPO of the Year

In this engaging episode of Pivot, hosts Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway discuss predictions for 2025, covering topics from AI advancements to political shifts. They explore the potential impact of AI on companies like IBM and Salesforce, noting their strategic positioning to benefit from the AI revolution. The conversation also touches on the evolving media landscape, with predictions of increased influence for independent streamers and podcasters. Additionally, they delve into geopolitical dynamics, speculating on Donald Trump's potential foreign policy successes and the implications of his age on his presidency. The episode features insights from guests like Ian Bremmer, Don Lemon, and Anthony Scaramucci, offering a diverse range of perspectives on the future of business, technology, and politics.

• Hosts Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway reflect on New Year's traditions and personal preferences, expressing a shared disdain for New Year's festivities.
• They discuss their unlikely partnership and shared backgrounds, highlighting their similarities as wealthy Democrats living in major cities.

"I think New Year's is the worst holiday."

• Scott Galloway expresses his dislike for New Year's, setting the tone for a candid conversation about personal preferences and societal norms.

"We're wealthy white people who are Democrats living in a major city."

• This quote highlights the hosts' acknowledgment of their shared demographic and political identity, emphasizing their common ground despite their differences.

• The conversation touches on the cultural disconnect between different parts of America, as experienced by the hosts during various media engagements.
• They discuss the diversity of experiences and perspectives within the country, likening it to a "salad" or "stew" rather than a homogenous entity.

"It's a salad, not a soup."

• This metaphor underscores the diversity and complexity of American culture, suggesting that the nation's strength lies in its varied components.

"I just realized I am not in touch with America or different parts of America."

• Scott Galloway reflects on his realization of being disconnected from broader American experiences, highlighting the cultural bubbles that exist within the country.

• The episode focuses on making predictions for the coming year, with insights from both hosts and guest contributors.
• They reflect on past predictions, acknowledging both successes and failures, and emphasize the evolving media landscape.

"Reddit's IPO was a huge success. Advertising up, stock up, everything else."

• This quote highlights Scott Galloway's accurate prediction about Reddit's successful IPO, showcasing his expertise in identifying trends in the business world.

"The DOJ would win the Google Monopoly case."

• Kara Swisher reflects on her correct prediction regarding the Department of Justice's victory in the Google Monopoly case, illustrating her insight into legal and regulatory trends.

• Don Lemon predicts a rise in independent media and streaming platforms, driven by public fatigue with corporate media and the influence of political figures like Donald Trump.
• The hosts discuss the financial advantages of podcasting and independent media compared to traditional media outlets.

"I think it's going to be a banner year for independent streamers and podcasters."

• Don Lemon predicts significant growth for independent media, emphasizing the shift away from traditional corporate media due to consumer preferences.

"The means of production is not standing in between us."

• Scott Galloway explains the financial benefits of podcasting, where fewer intermediaries allow for greater revenue retention by content creators.

• The discussion explores the migration of talent from traditional media to independent platforms, driven by financial incentives and changing audience demographics.
• The hosts acknowledge the ongoing value of traditional media's reporting while recognizing the opportunities in digital spaces.

"Traditional media still, whether it's Stephanie Rule or Neil Cavuto or Anderson Cooper, I find them still as fearless as ever."

• Scott Galloway praises traditional media for its continued quality and fearlessness, despite the rise of independent media platforms.

"Some of them have been overpaid and used to the town cars and everything else."

• Kara Swisher comments on the challenges faced by traditional media personalities transitioning to independent platforms, highlighting the need for entrepreneurial spirit and adaptability.

• Predictions include a wave of mergers and acquisitions among Hollywood media giants, driven by financial pressures and the need for consolidation.
• The role of private equity firms in acquiring and restructuring traditional media assets is discussed as a likely trend for the coming year.

"What you're going to see probably in the first half of 2025 is a bunch of the Hollywood media behemoths begin to shed their linear TV assets."

• Bill Cohen predicts significant restructuring in the media industry, with major companies offloading traditional TV assets to adapt to changing market dynamics.

"They're going to acquire all of these front end assets, keep the best people, keep the front end programming."

• Scott Galloway outlines the strategy of private equity firms in consolidating media assets, focusing on efficiency and cost reduction to maximize profits.

• Companies like Time Warner and Disney are looking to offload certain assets to streamline their core business narratives.
• The focus is on strategic reinvestment rather than simply liquidating assets for immediate gain.
• Private equity firms and unexpected players, such as influential media personalities, are exploring acquisitions and consolidations.

"A classic kind of private equity play or distressed debt play, although their debt isn't distressed."

• Traditional private equity strategies are being applied to media assets even when they are not in financial distress.

"I can't believe I'm paying this compliment, but Ben Shapiro's $200 million in revenue, apparently, that they didn't interview."

• Unexpected players like Ben Shapiro are generating significant revenue, highlighting new opportunities for media consolidations.

• There is an anticipation of changes in Federal Reserve policy due to tariff-induced price pressures.
• Tariffs are essentially seen as taxes that could lead to inflationary pressures.
• The Federal Reserve's response to inflation is uncertain, with potential implications for interest rates.

"My prediction for 2025 is that we might see an unexpected twist in Fed policy due to some price pressures from tariffs."

• Tariffs could force the Federal Reserve to adjust its policies, potentially impacting interest rates and economic growth.

"These tariffs go away or have serious, serious pushback the first month that inflation looks to be spiking again."

• Tariffs may be rolled back or face significant opposition if they contribute to a resurgence in inflation.

• President-elect Trump's foreign policy may see more success due to ideological alignment with global leaders and increased US power.
• The geopolitical stakes are higher, with the US in a stronger position relative to its allies and adversaries.

"President Elect Trump is going to have more foreign policy successes than people think."

• Trump's foreign policy could be more effective due to ideological alignment and the US's strengthened global position.

"Our adversary, Russia is bogged down in a war. Our ally in the Middle East, Israel, has punched back and basically cut the hands off the proxies of Iran."

• The US's geopolitical environment is favorable, with adversaries weakened and allies strengthened.

• Concerns are raised about the impact of age on political leaders' effectiveness, particularly in high-stress roles like the presidency.
• The importance of surrounding leaders with competent advisors is emphasized to mitigate potential age-related declines.

"I think the problem Trump faces without those adults around is that he has a lot of yes men."

• A lack of diverse perspectives and reliance on agreeable advisors could pose challenges for effective leadership.

"The decline is not linear. I mean, we said it and we were accused of being ageist."

• Age-related decline in political leaders is not predictable, and its impact on leadership effectiveness is a concern.

• Elon Musk is expected to leverage his political influence to support Tesla and Starlink's financial interests globally.
• This approach is seen as a strategic move to align his business operations with his political goals.

"I think in 2025, we're going to see Elon Musk deploy his political playbook around the globe to support his political interests and Tesla and Starling's financial interests."

• Musk's global strategy involves using political influence to advance the financial success of his companies.

"It's going to help him politically and especially for his business."

• Musk's acquisition of Twitter is viewed as a strategic move to enhance his political and business influence.

• Discussion on the influence of wealthy individuals in politics, specifically Elon Musk's involvement in Trump's election.
• Concerns about the intertwining of government and private sector interests, leading to a kleptocracy.
• The impact of campaign finance and how wealth can skew political outcomes.

"I think Elon Musk played a pretty big role in Trump's election. And as a result, Musk has already increased his net worth by 50 or $100 billion."

• Highlights the perceived influence of Elon Musk in political elections and the financial benefits that may follow.

"The market senses. Oh, SpaceX and Tesla are about to get a bunch of unearned business and contracts. That is not how capitalism is supposed to work."

• Critique of how political influence can lead to unfair business advantages, undermining the principles of capitalism.

• Speculation about Musk's future interest in political activities and his potential to lose interest.
• Discussion on his past accomplishments and the concern about his current political engagements.

"I just sense he's gonna get bored. It's boring. It is boring. This is boring. This is horse trading."

• Suggests that Musk may not remain engaged in politics due to lack of interest.

"He is living. He talks about the deep state and everything else he's. He is, is completely putting it into place in a way that he used to decry this idea."

• Points to the irony of Musk participating in systems he once criticized.

• Anthony Scaramucci's predictions: IBM's resurgence and Trump's potential influence on Ukraine's NATO membership.
• IBM's potential growth in AI and political developments involving Ukraine.

"IBM is going to have an incredible year and start to render an AI sort of multiple."

• Foresees IBM's significant growth in AI technology.

"Donald Trump is going to create a path to NATO membership for Ukraine."

• Suggests a surprising political maneuver by Trump regarding Ukraine.

• Discussion on IBM's potential in AI and the impact of AI investments by major companies.
• Comparison to early Internet developments and the role of companies riding the technological wave.

"IBM's got a P of 33. If it got any sort of that AI Zhuzh or Pixie dust, this stock could double or triple."

• Emphasizes IBM's potential for growth with AI advancements.

"I think the AI revolution is just getting started and it will start to really. It reminds me of early, early Internet."

• Suggests that AI is at the beginning of a significant transformative phase similar to the early Internet.

• Predictions about Trump's behavior and influence as a potential lame-duck president.
• His desire for recognition and legacy, possibly seeking the Nobel Peace Prize.

"I think Donald Trump's age might become an issue in the next two years."

• Anticipates that Trump's age may affect his political activity and demeanor.

"He wants to win the Nobel Peace Prize more than anything."

• Indicates Trump's craving for status and acceptance among elites.

• Prediction of a new duopoly in AI with OpenAI and Nvidia dominating the market.
• Anticipation of new unicorns in the AI application layer.

"2025 will be the year of a new duopoly. It'll be OpenVidia. OpenAI and Nvidia right now control arguably 90% of all traffic in AI."

• Foresees a significant concentration of power in the AI market with two dominant companies.

"We have the infrastructure layer, we have the LLMs themselves. But every innovation or new technology."

• Highlights the potential for growth in different layers of AI technology, beyond just infrastructure.

• AI is creating new consumer applications, particularly in healthcare, by analyzing personal health data and offering precise recommendations.
• The integration of AI in travel and personal scheduling is seen as a future trend, with AI proactively managing travel plans and personal schedules.

"I uploaded my urine, my blood work, my fecal work... and it came back with a series of recommendations and I took them to heart and I no longer have high blood pressure."

• This quote highlights the potential of AI in personal healthcare, demonstrating how AI can offer effective health solutions.

"I upload all of my credit card bills, all my past travel, my calendar, and it starts proactively saying, Scott, we see that you're going to be in LA for this meeting. We're going to book you here."

• This illustrates AI's capability to manage and optimize personal travel arrangements, showcasing its potential in automating personal tasks.

• AI tools like OpenAI can be used for medical diagnosis and to provide business insights by analyzing complex data sets.
• The shift from relying on human expertise to AI-driven insights is becoming increasingly prominent in various fields.

"I took my MRIs on my shoulders and I uploaded it to OpenAI and I said, please diagnose this and tell me what I should be doing, what stretching I should be doing."

• This quote emphasizes AI's role in providing medical diagnoses and treatment recommendations, reducing the need for initial human consultations.

"I uploaded our deck that we put together on summarizing our business and I said, I basically said, what is the likely deal we will get and what should we be thinking about?"

• This showcases AI's ability to analyze business data and provide strategic insights, highlighting its growing importance in business decision-making.

• Podcasts are becoming a significant medium for political campaigns, drawing capital away from traditional media.
• The reach and influence of podcasts are increasing, with many political figures seeking to leverage this platform.

"What they realized is where you go for voters is podcasts. And if you can go on one podcast and get the equivalent listenership of going on CNN, MSNBC, or FOX every night during primetime for a week."

• This quote reflects the strategic shift in political campaigning towards podcasts as a more effective medium for reaching voters.

"I have had four US Senators write me both Republic recently text me this week. It was crazy. Yeah, can I come on your podcast?"

• This indicates the growing importance of podcasts in political discourse, with politicians actively seeking appearances on popular shows.

• Asset-light business models are proving to be highly efficient and profitable, as seen in companies like Shein.
• The prediction for the IPO of the year focuses on companies leveraging technology and minimal physical assets.

"Shein doesn't own a single truck, factory, warehouse, store. It's all software-driven. And this year it's bigger than Amazon retail in apparel."

• This highlights the efficiency and scalability of asset-light models, positioning Shein as a significant player in the retail market.

• Nuclear energy is predicted to be the technology of the year due to its efficiency and reliability.
• There is a growing movement to ban phones in schools globally, reflecting concerns about social media's impact on education.

"You just saw Facebook basically put out an RFP saying build us a nuclear power plant. The friction in AI is energy, requires 10 times the energy."

• This underscores the increasing recognition of nuclear energy as a sustainable and necessary solution for powering future technologies.

"The movement of the year is going to be banning phones in schools. Globally. It's just starting everywhere."

• This reflects a significant social shift towards reducing digital distractions in educational settings to enhance learning outcomes.

• There is a renewed focus on addressing the struggles of young men and redefining masculinity in a positive light.
• The discussion emphasizes the importance of supportive male role models and the societal impact of young men's well-being.

"I think people are coming to the conclusion that women will not continue to flourish, nor will the country flourish if men flounder."

• This quote highlights the interconnectedness of societal progress and the need to support both genders for holistic development.

"If you go into a morgue and you find five people who've died by suicide. Four are men."

• This stark statistic underscores the urgent need to address mental health issues among young men and the broader societal implications.