Scott Adams: Unpacking Former President Donald Trump’s Livestream with Elon Musk and how Trump and Kamala will shape the 2024 Election

The conversation between James Altucher and Scott Adams delves into the complexities of the upcoming U.S. presidential election, highlighting the strategic maneuvers of both Trump and Kamala Harris. Adams praises Harris's campaign for its genius in adopting opponent's policies and reframing narratives, while suggesting Trump should engage directly with Democrat voters to dispel misconceptions. They discuss the potential for election chaos, the influence of media, and the importance of common-sense policies. Both express concerns about societal divisions and the impact of misinformation, with Adams emphasizing the role of critical thinking in navigating political landscapes.

• Discussion about the rapid political changes over the past eight years, transitioning from an Obama-Romney-McCain era to a Trump-Hillary-Biden era.
• The current political climate feels repetitive, with another potential Trump run for president.
• The necessity for a resolution in the ongoing political saga, likened to a three-act movie needing a climax.

"Eight years ago started the whole kind of Trump cycle. So it's like this been one political arc where we went from an Obama-Romney-McCain type of country to a Trump-Hillary-Biden type of country."

• The political landscape has dramatically shifted, indicating a significant transformation in American politics.

"It's a repeat, but it's also like return of the Jedi. So, like, Star wars and Empire strikes back sets up the story, and now there better be a fucking close to this story or something bad's gonna happen."

• The ongoing political narrative requires a definitive conclusion to avoid potential turmoil.

• Recent cybersecurity conferences highlighted vulnerabilities in election systems, with kids hacking simulated elections.
• The potential for foreign interference in elections and the challenges of securing election infrastructure.
• The suggestion that more government investment is needed to secure election machines, though this may not fully resolve the issue.

"There has to be a legitimate court confirmed problem with the election."

• A legitimate, court-confirmed issue with the election is necessary to address widespread concerns.

"If a bunch of kids can do it, China can do it. If China can do it, we can do it to them. So it's all a mess. And there's not really a solution."

• The ease with which election systems can be hacked raises concerns about their security and the potential for foreign interference.

• The possibility of a concerted effort to steal an election through electronic means, without the need for accomplices.
• The role of cybersecurity in preventing such efforts and the inherent challenges.

"The bad guys are always smarter than the good guys in cybersecurity. That's kind of the mantra of cybersecurity."

• The ongoing battle between cybersecurity experts and hackers, with the latter often having the upper hand.

"If it happens through electronic means, you don't need any accomplices and nobody would ever find it."

• The concern that electronic election fraud could occur undetected, complicating efforts to ensure election integrity.

• The debate over the necessity of voter ID laws and the potential for illegal voting.
• The argument that having a secure, observable voting process (e.g., paper ballots, same-day voting, showing ID) would minimize cheating.

"Other countries do. Paper ballots vote the same day, show your id, have observers."

• Other countries' voting processes are cited as examples of secure and transparent systems.

"Who is could possibly be against the showing of id to vote?"

• Questioning the opposition to voter ID laws, given their potential to ensure election integrity.

• Concerns about mail-in ballots and the potential for fraud, especially with non-citizens receiving ballots.
• The risk associated with millions of ballots being available for harvesting.

"Millions of people who got automatically signed up to vote, even though it's not legal for them to vote. They might get mailed a ballot."

• The automatic registration of voters, including non-citizens, raises concerns about the security of mail-in ballots.

• The rationale for using electronic voting machines and their purported advantages.
• Skepticism about whether these machines are truly faster, cheaper, or more accurate than hand-counted ballots.

"Why do you have electronic voting machines at all?"

• Questioning the necessity and advantages of electronic voting machines in the election process.

"We observe that it takes. Isn't it Pennsylvania or I forget which state, maybe Pennsylvania already said, don't expect these to be counted right away."

• Observations that electronic voting does not necessarily result in faster vote counting.

• The transformation of political campaigns and the use of strategic messaging.
• The example of Kamala Harris's campaign, which focuses on presenting her as a generic Democrat to avoid specific criticisms.

"Her campaign is basically claiming she's the generic Democrat because it's hard to run against a faceless person."

• The strategy of presenting a candidate as a generic representative of their party to avoid specific criticisms.

"They took this word weird. And I've applied it to the Trump campaign and JD Vance."

• The use of unique and unusual words in political campaigns to create memorable and impactful messaging.

• Trump's approach to campaigning, focusing on his past achievements and using distinct language to define his opponents.
• The importance of clear and concise messaging in political campaigns.

"Trump almost doesn't need issues because he's really running to say, how about I do what I did the first term?"

• Trump's campaign strategy relies on his past performance and the promise of continuity.

"You see Trump using, and also the Republicans using communist, socialist and marxist."

• The use of politically charged terms to define opponents and influence voter perceptions.

• The discussion covers a wide range of topics related to election security, voting processes, and political campaign strategies.
• The importance of secure and transparent election processes is emphasized, along with the need for strategic messaging in political campaigns.

• Confusion around political terms: Many undecided voters are unclear about political labels such as Marxism, socialism, and communism.
• Perception of political ideologies: There's a lack of understanding of the differences and implications of these ideologies.

"Did you know her father was a Marxist? No. What's a Marxist again? How is that different than a communist? Wait, but we're kind of socialist, aren't we? Because we have some Social Security. Is Marxist bad?"

• Explanation: This quote illustrates the confusion and lack of knowledge among undecided voters regarding political ideologies.

• Ambiguity of fascism: The term "fascism" is often used without a clear understanding of its definition.
• Fascism during COVID-19: Some actions during the Trump administration, such as economic lockdowns, are perceived as having elements of fascism.

"There isn't even actually a very clear definition of fascism, but no one really, and I've been hearing the word fascist being called on both sides, but really it's more directed at Trump."

• Explanation: The term "fascism" is frequently used in political discourse, but its definition remains unclear to many.

"One can argue there were the lockdowns during COVID. That has elements of, to me, that has elements of fascism."

• Explanation: The speaker suggests that the economic lockdowns during the pandemic have characteristics of fascism.

• Leaders' decisions as guesses: Leaders had to make decisions based on limited information during the pandemic, which involved a lot of guesswork.
• Forgiveness for wrong guesses: There is a call for understanding and forgiveness for leaders who made incorrect decisions due to the unprecedented nature of the pandemic.

"Your leaders are going to have to guess. They're going to have to. They'll guess differently, but somebody's going to be right and somebody's going to be wrong."

• Explanation: Leaders had to make decisions without complete information, which led to varied outcomes.

"I'm going to forgive every leader who guessed wrong, because it is guessing."

• Explanation: The speaker advocates for forgiving leaders who made wrong decisions during the pandemic due to the necessity of guesswork.

• Risk evaluation of vaccines: People had to evaluate the risks of the virus and the vaccine without sufficient information.
• Contradictory data on vaccines: There is conflicting information about the effectiveness and safety of COVID-19 vaccines.

"You looked at a weaponized virus that you knew nothing about, because we couldn't know what was the long term impact of being infected. And then you looked at a vaccination that you also didn't know anything about."

• Explanation: The speaker highlights the difficulty in making informed decisions about the virus and vaccines due to the lack of information.

"Now, all of those were unknown. Was long Covid real? I don't know. Would it be bad? I don't know."

• Explanation: There were many uncertainties about the long-term effects of COVID-19 and the vaccines.

• Government control over business: The pandemic led to increased government control over businesses, which some perceive as elements of fascism.
• Historical roots of fascism: Fascism often has roots in socialism, as seen in historical examples like Nazi Germany and Mussolini's Italy.

"Fascism is when government has this obscene amount of control over business."

• Explanation: The speaker defines fascism as excessive government control over businesses.

"Almost every, if I ask somebody who was a fascist, they'll say, Hitler, Mussolini, Mao. Nobody seems to realize these were all socialists originally."

• Explanation: Historical fascist leaders often had socialist beginnings.

• Impact of campaign messaging: The effectiveness of political campaigns can be influenced by the messaging used.
• Gender and leadership perceptions: Statements about gender and leadership abilities can have significant impacts on political campaigns.

"When she said about Trump, do you really want his hands on the nuclear button? And that was driving her up in the polls."

• Explanation: Effective messaging can significantly influence poll results.

"Hillary Clinton also said that a woman would make a better leader because they're better at listening. And every part of my body just went, no."

• Explanation: Gender-based statements in political campaigns can be polarizing and controversial.

• Discrepancy between live events and media coverage: There can be significant differences between what is said during events and how it is reported by the media.
• Technical issues affecting perception: Technical problems during live events can lead to misinterpretations of a speaker's condition or behavior.

"I heard things like, look, it's probably a good idea where, it is a good idea to vet people coming into your country to make sure that they're not criminals."

• Explanation: Common-sense statements made during events can be overshadowed by media narratives.

"He sounded like he was slurring, like his dentures were falling out. He doesn't have dentures or that he was drunk or that he just had a stroke or something."

• Explanation: Technical issues can lead to misinterpretations of a speaker's condition, affecting public perception.

• New formats for political discussions: Innovative formats like extended conversations can provide deeper insights into candidates but also present challenges.
• Elon Musk's role in political discourse: Musk's involvement in political discussions through platforms like Twitter demonstrates the intersection of business and politics.

"Elon had a great idea, which is let's do something like a conversation without a specific end time."

• Explanation: New formats for political discussions can offer more comprehensive insights but may also lead to issues like rambling.

"I give Elon Musk really a lot of credit for trying a new thing, doing it in a different way, knowing that the old ways of getting our information had all kinds of problems."

• Explanation: Musk's efforts to innovate political communication are commendable, despite potential flaws.

• Leveraging social media for political gain: Social media platforms like Twitter can be strategically used to promote political agendas and engage with a large audience.
• Challenges of new communication methods: While new methods can be innovative, they also come with challenges that need to be addressed.

"Buying Twitter was not a mistake for him...he's basically kind of talking. It's all the talking points for all his companies."

• Explanation: Musk's acquisition of Twitter allows him to promote his business interests while engaging in political discourse.

"I can't remember the last time there was a conversation with a presidential candidate that lasted, you know, 2 hours like that."

• Explanation: Extended conversations with political candidates are rare and provide unique opportunities for engagement.

• Complexity of political discourse: Political discussions are multifaceted and involve various themes, including ideology, leadership decisions, media coverage, and the role of technology.
• Need for understanding and forgiveness: Given the complexity and uncertainty in political and public health decisions, there is a call for more understanding and forgiveness for leaders' mistakes.

• Discussion on the idea of a mysterious group that influences political decisions.
• Example of Trump making his own decisions without external influence.
• The notion of a coordinated effort in political campaigns, such as Biden's and Kamala Harris's strategies.

"Trump is his own. You cannot tell. You know, he is going to come up with his ideas and strategies. He'll make his decisions. He is doing it."

• Explanation: Trump is depicted as an independent decision-maker, not influenced by a mysterious "they."

"There is this sense that somebody pulled the strings, for instance, getting Biden out of the race, putting Kamala in the race, coming up with these messaging tactics."

• Explanation: The idea that there might be a coordinated effort in political campaigns to manipulate outcomes.

• The concept that the person with the best idea is in charge, regardless of their position or expertise.
• Trump as an example of adopting and selling the best ideas from various sources.
• Differences in how Republicans and Democrats might approach idea adoption in campaigns.

"The person with the best idea is always in charge."

• Explanation: The notion that the best idea, not the position or expertise, determines leadership.

"Trump is a perfect example of the best idea. He scans all of the mostly Republican pundits and smart people, and he looks for ideas that are sticky that he could sell, that agree with where he's going, and then he adopts them."

• Explanation: Trump is described as someone who adopts the best ideas from various sources to guide his decisions.

• Discussion on the influence and power required to get a presidential candidate to agree to certain decisions.
• Example of Kamala Harris potentially being controlled or having significant trust in her advisors.
• Historical example of Obama influencing the TARP bailout decision.

"Think about how much credibility and or power you would have to have over a presidential candidate to get them to say yes to that."

• Explanation: The significant influence required to sway a presidential candidate's decision.

"Obama took Bush's side and convinced the Republicans in Congress to vote for a TARP, too."

• Explanation: An example of Obama's influence in getting a crucial decision passed.

• Personal anecdote about sending a daughter to Columbia and encountering anti-Semitism.
• The shift from professors being educators to activists and the resulting influence on students.
• The rise of anti-Israel sentiments and the ignorance of significant events like October 7.

"I feel sad for my daughter that this was the, that secretly the leaders of the college, the educational institution she went to, were all kind of thinking this about her, not her specifically, but her generally being a Jewish student on campus."

• Explanation: The speaker's disappointment in the hidden anti-Semitic sentiments at a prestigious educational institution.

"James Lindsay has spoken about how professors on these campuses since, but the difference between the sixties and now is the professors would speak then, but they would just stick to teaching. And now they're more, professors are more activists."

• Explanation: The shift in professors' roles from educators to activists, influencing student activism.

• Comparison of college campuses to cults in terms of isolating individuals from outside influences.
• The impact of isolation on shaping opinions and creating extreme views.
• The role of rhetoric in polarizing opinions and labeling dissenters as extreme.

"If you take Patty Hearst and you kidnap her and you're the Symbionese Liberation Army, you know, a real story from the past where they kept her as a captive until Stockholm syndrome kicked in and she started siding with her captors."

• Explanation: An analogy to describe how isolation can lead to adopting extreme views.

"If you have this opinion, I can't even talk to you or deal with you or you're a monster, you're a fascist."

• Explanation: The extreme polarization of opinions, where dissenting views are not tolerated.

• Discussion on the current state of free speech and censorship, especially in the context of social media.
• The impact of Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter on free speech and user behavior.
• The societal shift towards mental illness and its influence on political opinions.

"We live in a world that pays lip service to free speech. Free speech is a good thing, except we don't want Nazis, for instance, marching downtown."

• Explanation: The contradiction in society's stance on free speech, supporting it in principle but not in practice.

"There are studies that show that something like 62% of single liberal women are treated for mental illness. So depression, anxiety, sort of thing."

• Explanation: The high prevalence of mental illness among a specific demographic and its impact on political opinions.

• The separation of news sources leading to isolated and polarized opinions.
• The lack of interaction between people with differing political views on social media.
• The importance of seeking out diverse news sources to avoid being misinformed.

"Politics is mostly a brainwashing competition. And what's different is the news sources are so siloed that even on social media, I have almost no contact except trolls, paid trolls of anybody on the other side."

• Explanation: The isolation of news sources and its impact on creating polarized opinions.

"I make it a habit to make sure I spend a good amount of time looking at MSNBC and CNN and alternatives as sources so I can at least get a sense of what's going on on the other side."

• Explanation: The importance of seeking out diverse news sources to get a balanced understanding of events.

• The expectation of contested results and lack of trust in the electoral process.
• The potential for legal battles, protests, and a lack of clear resolution.
• Historical examples of contested elections and the potential impact on future outcomes.

"No matter who wins, the other side is going to be absolutely positive something suspicious happened and they will be so mad and they will think that it's the end of the world if they don't act, that it's probably going to get dangerous."

• Explanation: The anticipation of contested election results and the potential for significant unrest.

"I suspect it's going to get kicked to the House, and it might be some really terrible process by which the members of the House pick the president, which is, I believe, is the plan B in the constitution."

• Explanation: The potential for the election to be decided by the House of Representatives due to contested results.

• The influence of former presidents and other significant figures in shaping political outcomes.
• The trust placed in these figures by their party members to make crucial decisions.
• The strategic decisions made by parties to ensure electoral success.

"If it's true that two former presidents, maybe Hillary Clinton, Pelosi, Schumer, if they were all on the same side, those are the ones that the Democrats would trust to say, okay, this is a once ever situation."

• Explanation: The significant influence of prominent figures in making strategic political decisions.

"They were smart to do it quickly and not wait for the convention, for instance. And I got to give them credit for that. So it sort of stopped the damage a little bit and of course, it reversed it."

• Explanation: The strategic decision to act quickly to minimize damage and ensure electoral success.

• Comparison of Betting and Bond Markets:
  • Betting markets are likened to bond markets due to the intelligence and thoroughness required in both.
  • Bond markets involve larger sums and more serious investors compared to smaller stakes in betting markets.

"I always think of the betting market the way people think of the bond market. It's not easy to invest in bonds. There's no, like, New York bond exchange. You could just go online and buy some bonds. So people who buy and sell bonds tend to be smarter about the economy and investing than the spec. You know, retail speculators and stocks and the betting markets. These are people who are putting money at risk. So they kind of have to look at everything. They just don't look at the latest polls. I sort of feel they're a little smarter about understanding the messaging and so on."

• Skepticism about Betting Markets:
  • Small amounts in betting markets may not reflect serious research.
  • Betting markets can be seen as another form of polling, often influenced by casual or fun bets rather than informed decisions.

"No, I would go the different direction because there's small amounts at play. The bond people are looking at larger amounts. So, yeah, they're serious people. But if I put a dollar 200 bet on a betting market, I didn't do any research."

• Expectations of Market Volatility:
  • Uncertainty in election results can lead to significant stock market drops, similar to the 2000 Gore-Bush election.
  • Market recovery is expected regardless of who becomes president.

"So your final conclusion here is that it's going to be very close, we won't have a winner. And from my perspective, that means look out below on the stock market, because it's going to be like Gore Bush 2000, where the stock market fell over 20% between November, between election day and inauguration day."

• Long-term Presidential Influence:
  • A president's perceived strength can influence international relations and conflicts.
  • Historical examples show that strong or unpredictable presidents can deter adversaries.

"I always used to think, and I've written about this, that who the president is doesn't matter. But then you start looking at the international, what they talked about last night, what Musk was talking about, how, you know, would Russia have been as confident in Ukraine if there was a strong president?"

• Trump’s Negotiation Strategy:
  • Hypothetical approach to resolving the Ukraine conflict by negotiating directly with Putin and Zelensky.
  • Emphasis on practical solutions and the possibility of Trump facilitating negotiations.

"I think you just say, hey, Putin, here's the deal. You know, this isn't going to go anywhere. You know, you're not going to get more. And Ukraine, hey, you know, you're not going to get all of that land back that they took. How about this? We'll just say that we're not going to make Ukraine a member of NATO, and we just sort of keep what you got and go back to our business."

• Building a Platform through Analysis:
  • Importance of understanding and analyzing current events through various lenses, such as hypnosis and game theory.
  • Balancing polarizing views with comprehensive analysis to attract a thoughtful audience.

"You've been very good at building up an entire platform around your kind of thoughts on current events, particularly politics, and your analysis from the prism of whether it's looking at it from a hypnosis point of view or I would say, a game theory point of view."

• Polarization and Audience Engagement:
  • Polarizing content tends to attract larger audiences.
  • The shift in algorithms favors more biased and polarized content over balanced views.

"If I were more biased, I would have ten times the bigger audience. So I agree with you completely."

• Internet Dads as a New Force:
  • Not aligned with traditional left or right politics but focused on common sense and practical issues.
  • Advocates for policies that are universally sensible, such as border security.

"There's a new force. It's not left or right. I call them the Internet dads. And maybe I'll put you in that category. So Elon Musk is not left or right because he said very clearly he's always supported Democrats. Maybe the next time he will. But he's an Internet dad."

• Tools for Identifying Fake News:
  • The concept of "too on the nose" as a sign of fabricated stories.
  • Real stories often have inconsistencies that make them stand out from overly perfect narratives.

"One of my favorites is the two on the nose. You may have heard me say that you'll hear a story that if there's a popular narrative that says, I don't know, that if you do a certain thing, you'll die. And then very soon after that, there's a story about somebody who did the exact thing and they died. The first thing I say is, that's a little too on the nose."

• Conspiracy Numbers:
  • The likelihood of a conspiracy being true decreases with the number of elements that need to align perfectly.
  • Large-scale conspiracies are often implausible due to the high number of participants required to maintain secrecy.

"If the number of things that has to conspire together for a fact to be true or for a statement to be true. If the number of things gets greater and greater, it's less likely for this assumption to be true."

• Humanizing Approach:
  • Engaging directly with voters to explain policies and dispel misconceptions.
  • Emphasizing personal charisma and straightforward communication to connect with the electorate.

"I believe that if he just talked like a human, you know, take out the stump speech and you're just talking to him one on one, his personal charisma is insane."

• Addressing Misconceptions:
  • Ensuring that those responsible for his security do not hold false beliefs about him.
  • Using written statements to clarify and debunk persistent hoaxes and misinformation.

"So my, my new persuasive. But I mean, it seriously, thing is that Trump should require his current Secret Service staff, the team, to each of them say in writing that they don't believe the fine people hoax."

• Potential for Violence:
  • Close elections can lead to heightened tensions and possible violence.
  • Importance of key states like Pennsylvania in determining election outcomes.

"I am worried about the close election. Like, I think, I think violence could occur. I think bad things could happen."

• Strategic Choices in Vice Presidential Candidates:
  • Discussion on the strategic implications of Kamala Harris not choosing Josh Shapiro as her VP candidate.

"It was interesting that she didn't pick Josh Shapiro to be her VP candidate because of that."