The World Is Changing Fast! Do This Now To Prepare - Neil Howe

Neil Howe, a historian and author, discusses the concept of generational cycles and the current "Fourth Turning," a period of crisis and transformation. He emphasizes the cyclical nature of history, where societal phases mirror the seasons, leading to transformative events that reshape institutions and collective behavior. Howe highlights the role of Millennials in remaking the world, contrasting their community-oriented approach with Gen X's individualism. He also addresses the potential for geopolitical and civic conflicts, the importance of family and community bonds, and the evolving nature of economic and social structures. The discussion underscores the need for adaptability and collective action during times of profound change.

• The speaker introduces the concept of the Fourth Turning, emphasizing its significance for Millennials, those born in the 80s and 90s.
• The Fourth Turning is described as a pivotal moment for this generation to reshape the world.

"This is going to be your chance to remake the world."

• This quote underscores the opportunity and responsibility Millennials have in influencing the future during this critical period.

• Neil Howe's work is highlighted, especially his influence on Tony Robbins and his long-standing analysis of generational cycles.
• The concept of society going through phases, similar to the seasons of the year, is introduced.

"Society also goes through phases right... Society itself has its spring, summer, winter, and autumn."

• This quote explains the cyclical nature of societal changes, likening them to seasonal changes.

• The interplay between individual life stages and historical cycles is discussed.
• Howe emphasizes how personal experiences and generational lessons shape societal changes.

"The intersection between the seasons of our own life and the seasons of history itself... that's what shapes us."

• This quote highlights the dynamic relationship between personal growth and historical events.

• The book delves into the patterns and chronology of previous Fourth Turnings, examining events like 9/11, the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, and the Great Depression.
• The catalysts for these periods often involve significant crises, such as economic collapses.

"The last two Fourth Turnings, the entry was a global economic crisis... Black Thursday in 1929 and the global financial crisis in 2008."

• This quote identifies the economic crises that marked the beginning of recent Fourth Turnings.

• During crises, societies tend to reorganize, starting with small communities and eventually forming larger tribal groups.
• Historical examples include the 1930s, the Civil War, and the American Revolution.

"We start refining ourselves as members of small platoons at first and then we start joining these larger tribal communities."

• This quote describes the process of societal reorganization during times of crisis.

• The climax of a Fourth Turning involves a decisive moment that determines the future direction of society.
• Historical examples include Pearl Harbor during World War II and the fall of France.

"The climax is when the final act, the decision that decides it all one way or the other, and then we finally move to the resolution."

• This quote explains the critical point in a Fourth Turning that leads to resolution and a new societal phase.

• The post-crisis era is characterized by renewed trust in institutions and a sense of unity and belonging.
• This period is often seen as a "golden age" for those who endured the crisis.

"We have a great sense of belonging... particularly those who bore most of the brunt of getting through the crisis."

• This quote highlights the positive aspects of the post-crisis era, where society experiences a renewed sense of unity.

• The book also discusses the potential for change and the roles individuals play in these generational cycles.
• Howe reflects on the idea that there is a rhythm and order to how events unfold, and individuals have specific roles to play.

"There is a rhythm and in nature and an order to how things play out... we do have a role, we do have a script."

• This quote emphasizes the structured nature of historical events and the importance of individual roles.

• The current Fourth Turning is marked by profound pessimism, institutional failure, and a sense of societal decline.
• Issues such as growing inequality, ineffective institutions, and a lack of community are highlighted.

"We see that on our current track everything is going to get worse... nothing is holding any longer."

• This quote captures the prevailing sense of decline and dysfunction in contemporary society.

• Despite the challenges, the Fourth Turning is seen as an opportunity for significant societal transformation.
• The notion that history only moves forward and cannot be rewound is emphasized.

"We need some huge transformation in our society to change the trajectory... history has no rewind button."

• This quote underscores the necessity for forward movement and transformation during the Fourth Turning.

• The need for government and societal change is discussed, particularly in terms of adapting to new challenges and fostering collective progress.
• The cyclical nature of social behavior and the generational mission to improve society are examined.

"Every generation thinks it's their mission to improve society... we're always trying to correct for the excesses of the last generation."

• This quote explains the generational drive to address past mistakes and improve society.

• While historically, Fourth Turnings have involved total wars, there is hope that modern societies might find other ways to achieve transformation.
• The importance of a collective sense of urgency and the potential for organized conflict are discussed.

"It does require a sense of total public urgency... you need that prospect of ruin if we don't act now."

• This quote highlights the need for a unifying sense of urgency to drive societal change during a Fourth Turning.

• The speaker reflects on the importance of understanding these cycles and the responsibility to make the right decisions for the future.
• The potential long-lasting consequences of decisions made during a Fourth Turning are emphasized.

"We have an awesome trust to do the right thing to make the right decisions... the consequences of that are very long-lasting."

• This quote underscores the weight of responsibility and the importance of making informed decisions during critical periods in history.

• Leaders often follow a cycle of behavior unknowingly, influenced by generational shifts and societal changes.
• Each generation experiences and reacts to societal changes differently, leading to varying leadership styles and societal outcomes.

"Something that no one else figured out and I'm going to do it right this and what that does is it creates a sequence of compensations and changes in Direction and before you know it we actually have an actual cycle."

• Leaders' actions create a cycle of compensations and directional changes, forming a pattern over time.

• The Fourth Turning represents a period of significant societal change, impacting different generations uniquely.
• Millennials (born in the 80s and 90s) are positioned to remake the world, experiencing empowerment and collective action.
• Gen X (born in the 60s and 70s) experienced individualism and self-reliance, contrasting with Millennials' community-oriented approach.

"It's going to be empowering ultimately and I think that's the message I would give but for all the Millennials out there, you know, for people who were born in the 80s or 90s, this is going to be your chance to remake the world."

• Millennials are expected to feel empowered and take the opportunity to reshape society during the Fourth Turning.

"You were raised as the quintessential throwaway kids, you had to look after yourselves, everything was dangerous, and if you didn't look after yourself, no one else would."

• Gen Xers were characterized by self-reliance and individualism, shaped by their upbringing and societal conditions.

• Millennials are focused on community and institutional support, contrasting with Gen X's individualistic approach.
• As Millennials take over leadership roles, they will likely reshape societal norms and institutions to be more community-focused.

"Millennials are really trying to create a different world, one which is much more community-oriented, one in which institutions look after them and they contribute to the institution."

• Millennials' focus on community and institutional support marks a significant shift from previous generations.

"Millennials actually finally begin to take over, be a little bit like the GI generation finally getting elected in large elections in the 1950s and beginning to take over Congress and State houses."

• Millennials' rise to leadership will mirror the GI generation's post-World War II influence, shaping societal structures and norms.

• Economic inequality has risen since the late 1970s, contrasting with the mid-20th century's declining inequality.
• Millennials are expected to address and potentially reduce economic inequality through policy changes and societal shifts.

"Inequality declined hugely during World War II and during the 1950s and most of the 60s, started rising again at the end of the 70s."

• Historical periods of declining inequality were driven by government policies and societal restructuring.

"Millennials feel that if you do have a lot of money and privilege, you share with all your peers. I mean, that's what you do."

• Millennials' approach to wealth and privilege emphasizes sharing and community responsibility, differing from previous generations.

• Millennials are increasingly disillusioned with democracy, viewing it as a system that perpetuates the status quo and hinders significant change.
• They are more inclined to support populist leaders who promise substantial societal changes, regardless of ideology.

"Millennials are actually turning on democracy itself. You ask Millennials, they're much less likely than older generations to think democracy is a good idea."

• Millennials' skepticism towards democracy stems from its perceived inefficacy in bringing about meaningful change.

"Younger people interestingly enough are actually drawn to these populist leaders, and this is shown by the Cambridge Center for the Study of Democracy."

• Millennials' support for populist leaders is driven by a desire for significant societal change and the belief that such leaders can deliver it.

• Parents with generational wealth should involve their children in managing and understanding wealth, emphasizing community values and responsibilities.
• Millennials value community and peer bonding, and wealth management should reflect these values to resonate with them.

"Letting your children know what you believe in by your example, involving your kids in managing the family's wealth and showing a vision for their future that includes them and their generation."

• Involving children in wealth management and demonstrating community values helps align generational perspectives and responsibilities.

"Millennials know more than anyone that the only way we get out of this is by being able to practice community virtues in a much more rigorous way than we've had to practice them in the past."

• Millennials' emphasis on community virtues and collaborative efforts is crucial for navigating future societal challenges.

• Crisis eras are characterized by economic volatility, requiring adaptive and strategic investment approaches.
• Historical patterns show that significant policy innovations and societal changes often occur during times of crisis.

"Crisis eras are one in which we can expect more volatility of the economy, similar to the post-2007 GFC."

• Economic volatility during crisis eras necessitates careful and adaptive investment strategies.

"We always make our biggest, most profound decisions for the future when we're backed into a corner and worried about our country not lasting until tomorrow."

• Major societal changes and policy innovations are typically driven by crises, highlighting the importance of strategic decision-making during such times.

• Avoid High-Leverage and High-Beta Strategies: In times of economic uncertainty, such as during or after a pandemic, it's crucial to steer clear of high-risk investment strategies.
• Diversification: Geographical diversification is recommended to mitigate risks associated with specific sectors or regions.

"You want to get out of momentum, high leverage, high beta, all of that. This doesn't work well."

• High-risk strategies are unsuitable during economic downturns.

"Geographically, you want to diversify, and you want to look at other areas of the world which are likely to be better over time long term."

• Diversifying investments geographically can reduce risks and improve long-term returns.

• Institutional Inefficiencies: Many American institutions are currently ineffective, but there is significant potential if these inefficiencies are resolved.
• Economic Boom Potential: Once institutional barriers are removed, the potential for economic growth and innovation is substantial.

"I believe that there's tremendous untapped potential in America that's just been completely caged by the fact that so many institutions don't work."

• The U.S. has significant growth potential hindered by ineffective institutions.

"But if once that's untapped, that causes the incredible boom to take place."

• Resolving institutional inefficiencies can lead to substantial economic growth.

• Decline in Globalization: Global trade as a share of global GDP has been declining since 2007, and this trend is expected to continue.
• Geopolitical Conflicts: Certain regions, particularly those involved in geopolitical conflicts, are riskier for investments.

"Global trade as a share of global GDP has been falling, and in this new age of sanctions and possibly geopolitical conflict, it will fall even more."

• Global trade is decreasing, influenced by sanctions and geopolitical tensions.

"I would be particularly cautious of economies which depend heavily on globalization."

• Economies reliant on globalization are riskier investments in the current climate.

• Philippines and India: These countries have strong demographic trends and economic potential.
• China's Decline: China's demographic and geopolitical issues make it a less favorable investment compared to its regional alternatives.

"I like the Philippines a lot. It's an Anglophone country with great workforce potential and is growing demographically through the end of the 21st century."

• The Philippines has strong demographic growth and workforce potential.

"India passed China in population in 2022 and is expected to be twice as large as China by 2100."

• India’s population growth positions it as a promising economic power.

• Resurgence in Manufacturing: Sectors like manufacturing, defense, and new materials are expected to grow.
• Importance of Community-Oriented Industries: Industries that contribute to community building, such as healthcare and education, are becoming increasingly important.

"I'm bullish on commodities manufacturing, particularly defense, as well as new materials."

• Manufacturing and defense sectors are expected to grow.

"In every crisis, the importance of materials and reshaping the outer physical world becomes evident."

• Crises highlight the need for industries that contribute to physical and community infrastructure.

• Negative Productivity in Healthcare: Despite high spending, the U.S. healthcare system shows negative productivity.
• Education and Housing: These sectors are crucial for improving living standards but currently face significant challenges.

"In healthcare, we've had negative productivity over the past 30 years. Life expectancy in the United States last peaked in 2014."

• The U.S. healthcare system is inefficient and shows declining productivity.

"Education, both primary and secondary, and university level education, housing, and land use development are crucial sectors."

• Education and housing are critical sectors that need improvement to enhance living standards.

• Awakenings and Crises: Societal changes often occur in cycles, with periods of cultural renewal (Awakenings) followed by periods of institutional rebuilding (Crises).
• Current Crisis Period: We are currently in a period of institutional rebuilding, similar to past crises like the Great Depression and World War II.

"The Awakening is when we rebuild the inner world with new values, culture, and perceptions."

• Awakenings involve cultural and value shifts.

"The crisis is about rebuilding our civic world of institutions, political institutions, and economic institutions."

• Crises focus on rebuilding societal and institutional structures.

• Political Uncertainty: The upcoming U.S. presidential election in November 2024 is a significant event, with potential for rapid changes in political leadership.
• Geopolitical Tensions: Increasing tensions, particularly in Southeast Asia, could lead to significant geopolitical events.

"The huge flashpoint coming up is November 2024. We have a politically leaderless nation with tremendous dissatisfaction."

• The 2024 U.S. presidential election is a critical event with potential for significant political changes.

"National security officials are speeding up the clock on what's likely to happen on Taiwan."

• Geopolitical tensions in Southeast Asia, particularly regarding Taiwan, are escalating.

• Greater Resolution: The current understanding of societal cycles is more detailed and resolved compared to earlier, more impressionistic views.
• Identification of Specific Conflicts: Earlier predictions were more archetypal, while current understanding identifies specific geopolitical and societal conflicts.

"When we wrote the book in 1997, it was almost science fiction. Now we see it in much more detail."

• Earlier predictions were vague, while current understanding is more detailed.

"We now see actual axes of powers and specific geopolitical conflicts."

• Current understanding identifies specific geopolitical and societal conflicts.

• Patterns of Fertility and Migration: There's a recurring pattern of fertility rises and falls, as well as migration trends.
• Immigration Post-Awakenings: Historically, immigration rises after cultural awakenings due to weakened public institutions and economic incentives for businesses.
• Economic Revolutions: Cultural revolutions often coincide with economic revolutions affecting taxes, regulations, and immigration restrictions.
• Immigration Trends: Immigration peaks during periods of economic growth and declines during crises due to decreased desirability and increased protectionism.
• Union Influence on Immigration: Historically, unions have opposed immigration to protect wages, leading to periods of low immigration and rising wages.
• American Immigration Trends: The U.S. has always been a high immigration country, with changing attitudes towards diversity and integration over time.

"Generally, we have rising immigration after awakenings in our history because typically awakenings weaken public institutions that protect, but we just basically let the borders open, let people come in."

• Immigration increases post-awakening due to weakened institutions and economic needs.

"In the 1920s, in the early 1920s, we shut the immigration window suddenly, and then suddenly when the DI generation grew up in a very low immigrant country... wages started rising."

• Immigration restrictions in the 1920s led to higher wages and economic equality.

"America has by far the best, hugest destination for immigrants of any country in the world in absolute terms, and our immigration rate is very high."

• The U.S. remains a top destination for immigrants with high immigration rates.

• Origin of Seculum: The term "seculum" originates from hundreds of years ago, reflecting the average human life cycle.
• Historical Life Expectancy: Lower historical life expectancy was mainly due to high infant and child mortality rates.
• Changing Life Phases: Despite longer life expectancies, the phases of life, particularly elderhood, remain significant.
• Impact of Longevity Technology: Advances in biosciences and longevity technology might extend life phases, potentially adding a fifth generation.

"The average life expectancy was lower, but it was mainly because of high infant mortality and child mortality."

• Lower historical life expectancy was due to high early-life mortality rates.

"At the end of 2020, for the first time in history, not only in America but any nation, we had an octogenarian at the head of the Senate, the House, and the White House."

• Recent political leadership highlights the increasing age of leaders.

"The dilation of life phases means the generations would be slightly longer, and it means actually the seculum will expand somewhat."

• Longer life phases may extend the duration of a seculum.

• Challenges in Prediction: Predicting specific events like elections is complex and differs from analyzing long-term generational trends.
• Comparative Advantage: The focus is on thematic, long-term trends rather than short-term predictions.
• Historical Patterns: Using past patterns to understand future trends, emphasizing the cyclical nature of history.

"It's a very particular event that could go one way or the other... but I think thematically using the past as my guide to think about much longer-term periods."

• Predicting elections is complex; the focus is on long-term historical patterns.

• Importance of Family: In times of crisis, bonding with family and extended family is crucial for security and support.
• Investment in Relationships: Building strong family ties is more valuable than financial investments in uncertain times.
• Community Building: Developing a sense of community within industries and local areas becomes essential during crises.

"Your best investment for security down the road, particularly in a turning situation, is to bond with your family, particularly your extended family."

• Strong family bonds are essential for security in times of crisis.

"In the fourth turning, we don't know what kind of social security or Medicare... your personal well-being just may not be the top of anyone's priority."

• Government support may be uncertain; personal and community support is crucial.

• Building Industry Communities: Creating a sense of community within industries can provide mutual support during economic downturns.
• Public Sector Involvement: Representation in the political system becomes more important during crises to protect industry interests.
• Collective Preparedness: Encouraging industries to prepare for worst-case scenarios and advocate for their value to society.

"In a fourth turning, those are the people who get crushed... organize your community by getting them to think about their future and what do we do in worst-case scenarios."

• Industries must prepare for crises and advocate for their importance to society.

"The public sector is going to be making or breaking the fates of industries and companies, and you really want your voice heard."

• Political representation is crucial for industry survival during crises.