The "Energy Transition" is a Myth

Jean-Baptiste Fressoz, a French historian of science and technology, discusses his book challenging the concept of energy transition, arguing that rather than replacing one energy source with another, historical energy systems have expanded symbiotically. He highlights how coal, oil, and wood have coexisted and supported each other, debunking the notion of a linear energy transition. Fressoz critiques the unrealistic expectations of rapid energy shifts and emphasizes the enduring complexities of energy symbiosis. He calls for a focus on sufficiency and adaptation, rather than relying solely on technological innovations to address climate change.

• Jean-Baptiste Fressoz is a French historian specializing in science, technology, and the environment.
• Author of several books, including the one discussed in this podcast, which has the provocative subtitle "The Energy Transition Will Not Happen."

"The publisher wanted to have this, I mean, powerful words on the cover. I wanted a more academic title because I think the book is primarily history."

• Emphasizes that his book is primarily a history book, even though it also discusses implications for the present and future.

• Fressoz challenges the dominant narrative of energy transition, arguing that history does not support the concept of clear-cut transitions from one energy source to another.
• He introduces the idea of "energy symbiosis" as a more accurate model for understanding the history of energy use.

"My main point is that about the history, you know, we cannot really have any history of transition when you talk about the path of energy. I think it's a very wrong way to frame the history."

• Fressoz argues that the idea of energy transitions oversimplifies the complex interdependencies between different energy sources.

• Energy sources often work in symbiosis rather than in competition.
• Example: The Industrial Revolution is often described as a transition from wood to coal, but in reality, traditional energy sources like wood expanded during this period.

"Traditional energies do expand during the 19th century. I mean, basically industrial countries burn more wood in 1900 than they did in the early 1800s."

• To extract coal, enormous amounts of timber were required, showing the interdependence of wood and coal.

"Britain in the early 20th century used 4.5 million cubic meters of pit props, and to give you a point of comparison, Britain burnt 3.6 million cubic meters of firewood in the 18th century."

• The railroad industry in the United States used more timber for railway ties than the entire French forest production, highlighting the continued importance of wood even in the age of coal and steam.

• The idea that coal saved the forests is a misconception. In reality, the demand for timber increased due to the needs of the coal industry.
• The import of timber became a crucial part of the energy infrastructure, especially during the World Wars.

"Coal completely depends on an international commerce of timber. For Britain, it was particularly clear that without all the timber from the Baltic, from Portugal, from France, they could not have access to their coal."

• The symbiotic relationship between coal and timber challenges the notion of a clear-cut transition from one energy source to another.

• The infrastructure required for oil extraction and consumption is heavily dependent on coal, particularly for steel production.

"To build a car in the 1930s, Ford needs 7 tons of coal, which in terms of weight is more than the oil that the car is going to burn across its lifetime."

• The expansion of the oil industry stimulated the coal industry because of the increased demand for steel.

"For each ton of oil that was burned, 2.5 tons of coal were needed to build infrastructure—the cars, the tankers, the pipes."

• The story of the 20th century is not one of transition from coal to oil but of the symbiotic expansion of both.

• The underlying infrastructure is crucial for the adoption and expansion of new energy sources.
• Example: Rockefeller's wooden barrel factory was essential for the oil industry, demonstrating the continued importance of wood in the age of oil.

"The biggest wooden barrel manufacturer of the world is John D. Rockefeller because he's also the biggest oilman of the early 20th century."

• The construction of suburban environments in the 20th century also relied on wood, showing the continued relevance of traditional materials.

• The history of energy is not a series of transitions but a complex web of interdependencies and symbiotic relationships.
• Understanding these relationships is crucial for making sense of past and future energy use.

• Oil consumption drives construction and packaging industries.
• Timber construction is dominant in the US and Canada, with 90% of houses being timber-framed.
• Oil has transformed wood through technologies like plywood, particle boards, and plasterboard, radically increasing productivity.
• Construction is a major economic sector where capital accumulates, with over 50% of assets in Europe being housing.
• Housing accounts for 30% of energy consumption and CO2 emissions.

"The Suburban environment which is made possible by oil is a very strong market for Timber, especially in the US and Canada where Timber construction is very common."

• Oil enables suburban environments, creating a large market for timber construction.

"Plywood, which is a kind of revolutionary material, has really increased productivity in the construction industry radically."

• Plywood, a product of oil, has significantly boosted productivity in construction.

• Post-World War II forestry was revolutionized by oil, with technologies like chainsaws and logging trucks.
• Chainsaws, invented in 1927, became widely used in the 1950s and 1960s, increasing productivity.
• Special trucks and forestry roads, dependent on oil, made logging more efficient.
• Eucalyptus plantations, enabled by oil, produce significantly more wood than traditional forests.

"The chainsaw, invented in 1927 in Germany, became widely used only in the 1950s in the US and 1960s in Europe, increasing productivity radically."

• Chainsaws, powered by oil, revolutionized forestry by drastically increasing productivity.

"Eucalyptus plantations, made possible by oil, can produce 40 cubic meters per year, compared to 2-3 cubic meters in early 20th century European forests."

• Oil-enabled eucalyptus plantations yield significantly higher wood production.

• The paper industry, driven by packaging, is a major consumer of energy, larger than the aerospace industry.
• Black liquor, a byproduct of paper production, is used to energize machines, producing more energy than solar in Europe.
• Wood energy is currently more significant than solar, wind, and hydraulic energy in Europe and the US.

"The paper industry is economically bigger than the aerospace industry and is the fourth industrial consumer of energy."

• The paper industry, driven by packaging needs, is a major energy consumer.

"Black liquor produces more energy than solar in Europe, and wood energy is three times bigger than solar, wind, and hydraulic energy in terms of primary energy."

• Black liquor and wood energy are significant energy sources, surpassing solar and wind.

• Wood energy is crucial in developing countries, providing cooking and heating for over 2 billion people.
• Charcoal use in large cities in developing countries has expanded significantly since the 1960s.
• Wood energy is currently more significant than nuclear energy in terms of final energy.

"Wood energy provides cooking and heating for more than 2 billion people, and charcoal use has expanded significantly in large cities in developing countries."

• Wood energy is vital for cooking and heating in developing countries and has seen significant growth.

"In terms of final energy, wood energy is bigger than nuclear energy."

• Wood energy surpasses nuclear energy in terms of final energy consumption.

• Drax, a coal power plant in the UK, was converted to biomass with significant subsidies.
• The plant uses more wood than Britain burned in the 18th century, transported from Canada and the US.
• The project highlights the impracticality of using biomass to replace fossil fuels.

"Drax, converted to biomass with significant subsidies, uses more than 10 million tons of wood per year, four times more than what Britain burned in the 18th century."

• The Drax power plant's biomass usage demonstrates the impracticality of replacing fossil fuels with biomass.

• BECCS is proposed in climate models to achieve Net Zero by 2050, but it is non-competitive and impractical.
• The technology requires excessive amounts of wood and energy, making it unfeasible.
• Political implications of relying on BECCS create illusions and procrastination in addressing climate change.

"BECCS requires plantations of the size of three times India to produce enough wood to capture the necessary CO2."

• BECCS is impractical due to the enormous amount of wood and energy required.

"The political meaning of these scenarios creates more illusion and procrastination than anything else."

• Relying on BECCS in climate models leads to unrealistic expectations and delays in addressing climate change.

• Raw materials and energy sources do not become obsolete; their usage continues to increase.
• The only exceptions are materials like ship rule and asbestos, which have decreased due to synthetic alternatives and prohibitions.
• Narratives about energy transitions saving resources, like the myth of oil saving whales, are often false.

"Raw materials always increase in usage, despite innovations and new products."

• The usage of raw materials continues to grow, contradicting the idea of obsolescence.

"The myth that oil saved the whales is false; more whales were killed in the 20th century using diesel-powered boats."

• The narrative that oil saved whales is incorrect; oil was used to kill more whales in the 20th century.

• The notion that innovation, such as oil, saved the whales is a common but flawed narrative.
• Even experts and economists, including Nobel laureate William Nordhaus, propagate this mythology.
• The idea of energy transition has become dominant despite its recent origins and misconceptions.

"The experts and the economists expert on climate change like William N. you know they buy the story and they repeat the story all the time."

• This quote highlights how even respected figures in the field perpetuate the myth of innovation solving major environmental issues.

"It's through innovation that we will save climate just as it is with oil that we save the whales."

• This statement underscores the flawed analogy between past innovations and current climate solutions.

• The term "energy transition" originated with nuclear scientists, particularly those involved in the Manhattan Project.
• These scientists envisioned a future powered by breeder reactors, which in theory could provide energy for millennia.
• The Atomic Energy Commission played a crucial role in early climate change studies due to their advanced instruments.

"The term energy transition actually originates with nuclear scientists."

• This quote establishes the nuclear roots of the energy transition concept.

"They were amazed by the quantity of energy that you can get out of uranium if you got the breeder reactor."

• This statement emphasizes the immense potential seen in nuclear energy by early atomic scientists.

"The US Atomic Energy Commission for the first studies of climate change... they have new instruments... it allows you to have paleotemperatures using the isotopes of oxygen."

• This quote highlights the pioneering role of the Atomic Energy Commission in climate research.

• Early atomic scientists thought in terms of millennia, not decades or centuries.
• They believed nuclear energy could save industrial civilization in the long term.
• The concept of energy transition was initially meant to occur over centuries, driven by the scarcity of fossil fuels.

"They are really thinking about energy not in decades, not even in centuries, but in millennia."

• This quote illustrates the long-term perspective of early nuclear scientists.

"The energy transition will be achieved... by the 23rd or 24th century."

• This statement underscores the original, extended timeline envisioned for the energy transition.

• The modern narrative of energy transition has shifted to a much shorter timeline due to climate change.
• This shift occurred without the price incentives that were originally thought to drive the transition.
• The concept has been adapted from its original context, leading to misconceptions and unrealistic expectations.

"We have to get out of fossil fuels not in three or four centuries but in three or four decades."

• This quote highlights the urgency of the modern energy transition narrative.

"We have transferred this futurology for climate change which is a completely different problem."

• This statement points out the inappropriate application of a long-term concept to an urgent issue.

• The idea of replacing one energy source with another is oversimplified due to the unique properties of different energy sources.
• The obsession with electricity has led to misconceptions about energy fungibility.
• Electricity production is only a part of the overall energy problem, contributing to a narrow focus in energy transition discussions.

"The reason that wood persists is because it has a series of properties to it... coal similarly."

• This quote emphasizes the unique properties of different energy sources that make simple replacement difficult.

"The obsession with electricity... nuclear energy can replace coal for the production of electricity indeed."

• This statement highlights the narrow focus on electricity in energy transition discussions.

• Early 20th-century visions of an electric age powered by hydroelectricity were overly optimistic.
• Similar utopian visions resurfaced with the atomic age and now with renewable energy and hydrogen.
• These visions often underestimate the time and complexity involved in transitioning energy systems.

"In the future, all energy would come from electricity and this electricity would be produced with hydraulic energy."

• This quote captures the early 20th-century utopian vision of an electric age.

"We had the same thing with the atomic age in the 1950s... the same errors, the same misconception."

• This statement draws parallels between past and present utopian visions of energy transition.

• Hydrogen has been seen as a key element in the energy transition since the early 1960s.
• It was first promoted by atomic scientists as a way to expand the role of nuclear energy beyond electricity production.
• Modern discussions about hydrogen often echo these early visions, showing the persistence of certain ideas.

"Hydrogen is absolutely indispensable if you want nuclear energy to become important."

• This quote underscores the early recognition of hydrogen's potential in expanding nuclear energy's role.

"Australia becoming the Saudi Arabia of hydrogen because of its incredible solar resources."

• This statement shows the continuity of grand visions involving hydrogen in modern energy transition discussions.

• Realistic energy transition timelines are much longer than often portrayed.
• Early energy transition models acknowledged the long time required for significant shifts.
• Modern models and goals often underestimate the complexity and duration of transitioning energy systems.

"Energy transition will take time, a lot of time."

• This quote emphasizes the long-term nature of realistic energy transition timelines.

"Computer models to show that yes, you can get out of fossil fuels in 50 years... exactly the same goal that we have now."

• This statement highlights the persistent underestimation of the time required for energy transitions.

• Early integrated assessment models were created in 1972 and are still used today.
• The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) developed the first energy models, which are still referenced by the IPCC.

"The IIASA made the first energy models that are still used by the IPCC Group Three to reflect on the future of energy."

• Historical energy models suggested a transition away from fossil fuels within 50 years, but this proved overly optimistic.

"These models demonstrated that there were soft transition paths out of fossil fuels in 50 years, and Marchetti was saying no, don't believe that."

• Marchetti used historical data to argue that transitioning away from fossil fuels would take longer than models predicted.

"He was using the history of energy to show that it takes a lot of time."

• The rise of coal in China and India disrupted previous energy transition models.
• The late 1970s saw a recognition of climate change, but little action due to geopolitical and economic factors.

"The big expansion of coal will be in China, and I think that's really a key issue to understand why so little was done about climate change in the late 70s."

• The 1979 CH report in the US accurately estimated climate sensitivity but failed to prompt significant action.

"The CH report in 1979 about climate change showed that the climate sensitivity is 2.5 degrees Celsius."

• US and UK governments showed resignation towards climate change due to economic and political constraints.

"The only thing that you can do is put very high taxes on gasoline, but frankly, you don't want to do that; it's not very popular."

• Early discussions on climate change in the US included adaptation strategies as early as 1976.

"As early as 1976 in the US, there were discussions about adaptation to climate change."

• The belief that wealthy countries could adapt more easily than poorer countries influenced policy decisions.

"For the US, 3 degrees is completely acceptable; it's a very large country, you can move agricultural production according to climate change."

• The transition to cleaner energy sources like nuclear is slow and complicated due to technical and economic challenges.

"We cannot count on the fast diffusion of nuclear at a global level because it's expensive and complicated."

• Solar energy is seen as a more viable short-term solution due to its cost-effectiveness.

"Solar is cheap, so it can be implemented quickly, but it has many defects and limitations."

• Mainstream views on climate policy are more pessimistic compared to the more optimistic Net Zero goals.

"What is mainstream is what the International Energy Agency is explaining or what the American equivalent is saying; it's the same thing more or less."

• The importance of sufficiency and degrowth is starting to gain attention in climate change discussions.

"Sufficiency is just appearing now, and it's still very small in the sixth report of the IPCC Group Three."

• The concept of symbiosis and its application to agriculture and human muscle energy is an emerging area of study.

"I want to expand the idea of symbiosis to talk more about agriculture and the modernization of human muscle energy."

• Basic technologies like the shovel, spade, and wheelbarrow played crucial roles in the 20th century and are subjects of ongoing research.

"Basic technologies like the shovel, spade, and wheelbarrow were very important to understand for the 20th century."

• The interview concludes with a discussion about the dissemination of these ideas and the upcoming English publication of the book.

"Penguin is going to publish it in Britain in October 2024, and in the US, it will be January 2025."

• Future research will continue to explore the symbiosis of renewable technologies and their historical context.

"There’s all of the symbiosis of so-called renewables technologies; lots to discover."